The optimal fuel route for Mars involves the arrival when the two planets are roughly on the other side of the sun. This launch window is repeated every 18 months, and the nine -month travel time means that any problems on board must be solved by the crew, without any rescue option. Faster routes can be reached (about six months), but it becomes very energy intensive.

This is why the lunar gate would come in handy so that astronauts can take off from the moon, away from the earth’s tremendous gravity, and go to Mars from there. Of course, the material for the gate must first be sent to the lunar gate. But by dividing the energy requirements, it means slower, but more efficient drive methods can be used for part of the Mars journey.

There is no doubt that SpaceX can make a landing on Mars with some work. But will they be able to take people there safely and get back? As a company, the idea of ​​profit will be a strong factor, along with the safety of the astronaut. We just have to look at some of the more recent Boeing problems (astronauts have been caught on the International Space Station for seven months) to see that private businesses may want to delay a little when it comes to transporting people.

However, this is unlikely to happen with the substantial influence of Musk on the White House administration, and the proposal of fellow billionaire Jared Isaacman (a private astronaut) as the new head of NASA.

Critical decisions

So there are two options for NASA to choose from: Continue with its Artemis program and the Lunar Gateway, or aim for Mars and be mainly dependent on Musk.

The financing of both options would probably mean that none of it happens. Of course, the Mars mission would be easier if the gate was already present at the moon.

The timelines involved here are important. SpaceX mentions that it will send five unwritten starship to Mars next year with the aim of sending people to Mars in 2028. It seems ambitious, especially since it involves fuel in orbit, but if extra funds and materials are put to the project, it may be sooner than it.

Since the Lunar Gateway would be built so in early 2027, it will probably not be in effect in 2028. So the prioritization of Mars exploration over the Lunar Gateway can indeed bring us to Mars faster – but it will be risky.

If the US is out of plans to explore the moon, other countries can easily expand their presence in those areas – with the potential to have an easier route to Mars. However, it will probably be on much longer time scales, but if Musk fails to bring people to Mars in the next few years, these countries may have an edge.