Every November, the Global Carbon Project publishes the year’s Global Co2 emissions. This is never good news. At a time when the world needs to reduce emissions, the numbers remain. However, while emissions are moving in the wrong direction, many of the underlying economic forces driving them have been moving in the right direction. This could be the year when these various forces push hard enough to finally tip the balance.
In 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said they expected global energy emissions to peak by 2025. This estimate was a big change from the year before, fueled by accelerated investment in low-carbon technologies after the war in Ukraine. Rystad Energy – another research and analysis group – also expects a peak by 2025. Ember Climate – the leading source of global electricity data – says that global electricity emissions will peak as early as 2022. Analysts may not agree on the exact date, but it is clear that a peak in emissions is now well within our grasp.
The world is already gradually decarbonizing its electricity. Solar and wind are growing rapidly, and in 2024 these two sources of renewable energy could outpace the increase in demand for electricity. If that happens, coal and gas burning will fall, and so will emissions.
Surprisingly, if we actually reach peak emissions, it will depend a lot on the world’s biggest emitter, China. In 2023, emissions continue to rise. This is due in part to the ongoing recovery from COVID-19. An ongoing drought also means that the output of the hydropower has fallen. These factors once again highlight how difficult these things are to predict: one unexpected event can always turn a peak into another record year.
However, China’s peak will come soon due to record highs of solar and wind, and an increase in nuclear power. Soon, the country will add enough sustainable energy to meet its growing demand for electricity. China’s solar and wind production is already enough to cover the total electricity use of some of the world’s largest economies such as Canada, Brazil, Russia, Japan and even the world’s most populous country, India. In 2023 alone, this could add enough to cover the UK’s entire electricity use.
Another reason why the peak in global emissions may arrive in 2024 is the Electric Car Revolution. Global sales of petrol and diesel cars peaked half a decade ago, and the IEA estimated that nearly one in five cars sold worldwide in 2023 would be electric. Previously, the agency did not expect this milestone to be reached until 2030. (In 2020, this figure was just 4 percent.) This move to EVs will begin to eat into global oil demand until the peak also arrives. According to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, that could be as early as 2027.
Of course, peak emissions are just the beginning. The world must then reduce emissions, and fast. But the downSlope will be easier than the turning point, as the energy transition will no longer be in its infancy. 2024 will hopefully be the start of a mature low-carbon economy.